Kamala Harris Can Expect Rise in Polls After Trump Debate—Analyst

Vice President Kamala Harris may see a rise in the polls following the debate against former President Donald Trump, predicted CNN’s data reporter Harry Enten.
The two candidates sparred on issues such as the economy and foreign policy during the 90-minute debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, moderated by ABC News’ David Muir and Linsey Davis.
Trump sought to paint Harris as too liberal, particularly on immigration, a key vulnerability for Democrats. Meanwhile, Harris highlighted her economic plans, while criticizing Trump’s record on issues like abortion. She also took jabs at Trump on the size of his crowd rallies and his reputation among foreign leaders, appearing to get under his skin at some points.
Harris was perceived as the winner of the debate, according to early indicators. A Newsweek online poll after the debate showed that about 67 percent of readers viewed Harris as the victor, while about 33 percent said Trump won. Elsewhere, a CNN flash poll found that 63 percent of debate viewers believed Harris won the debate, compared to 37 percent who believed Trump won.
Enten said Wednesday morning that Harris “crushed” Trump and that viewers should not be surprised if Harris “jumps out to a lead nationally,” as well as potentially winning a small lead in key battleground states.
“I think that the most likely scenario is that you will, in fact, see a rise in the polls. Why? Take a look at the last four times we had a first debate and look at those winners. Did they see a rise in the polls? Yes. Mitt Romney in 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, and Donald Trump earlier this year. They all saw rises in the polls of two points or more,” he said.
Still, he noted that the race will “probably” still be close in November.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Enten said Harris performed “significantly better” than Biden in June when Biden’s performance fueled concerns about his age and ability to win in November. Weeks later, he withdrew from the race amid pressure from Democrats who were no longer confident about his ability to lead the ticket in November.
“This is almost like the inverse,” Enten said.
He noted that candidates typically see a bump of at least two points, but that Romney saw a larger polling jump of around three to four points. Still, Romney went on to lose to Barack Obama in the election.
“We’ll see if that holds, but the bottom line is I would expect to see a polling bump down the road if history is any guide,” he said.
Going into the debate, the race was a toss-up nationally and in the battleground states.
A Morning Consult poll, conducted among 10,607 likely voters from September 6 to September 8, found Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump (49 percent to 46 percent). A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted among 1,695 likely voters from September 3 to September 6, found Trump with a single-point lead (48 percent to 47 percent).